New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is proposing to apply New York’s 75% wholesale cigarette tax to nicotine pouches like Zyn—projected to raise $18M in FY2027 and $44M in FY2028—despite concerns it could push patients back toward combustible tobacco. Clinically, the fight is over whether pricing policy will steer nicotine-dependent patients toward lower-risk oral products or toward cigarettes, which drive New York’s ~30,000 smoking deaths annually.

The Move

• Hochul’s FY2027 budget proposal includes a provision to levy a 75% wholesale tax on nicotine pouches, matching the cigarette tax rate.

• State Budget Director Blake Washington framed pouches as a “public health concern,” calling the difference between cigarettes and pouches “a distinction without a difference.”

• Lawmakers have moved forward toward implementation, per the Times Union.

• A Morning Consult poll (n=517; Feb. 11–15) found fewer than half of NY voters support the tax; 37% said pouches should be taxed at a lower rate; 39% reported using pouches or having close family/friends who do.

Why it Matters for Care

• Taxes that narrow the price gap between cigarettes and lower-risk nicotine products can change what patients choose—potentially undermining cessation and harm-reduction strategies in everyday practice.

• Combustion is the main driver of smoking-related disease; policies that make non-combustible alternatives more expensive may increase relapse risk for patients trying to quit cigarettes.

• Sweden’s population data are often cited in harm-reduction discussions: from 2008–2022, smoking fell from 12.9% to 8.8% among men (and 15.3% to 8.5% among women) while snus use rose (men 20.1%→22.9%; women 3.2%→7.1%).

• Sweden also has Europe’s lowest lung cancer rate—frequently attributed by advocates to shifting nicotine use away from cigarettes and toward oral products.

Between the Lines

• This is a classic “sin tax” collision: revenue goals and youth-use anxiety vs. a harm-reduction framework that treats product risk as a spectrum.

• Some lawmakers are signaling the clinical tradeoff: State Sen. Nathalia Fernandez questioned whether it makes sense to price “the safer product” above cigarettes given combustion risk.

• Second-order effect: if patients perceive pouches as equally dangerous (or equally taxed), clinicians may face more resistance when offering step-down nicotine strategies.

• External evidence is being used as a warning: one analysis of Minnesota’s 95% vape tax estimated the duty increased adult smoking and prevented 32,400 smokers from quitting.

What to Watch

• New York budget negotiations: whether the pouch tax survives intact, is scaled back, or is paired with carve-outs (e.g., differential rates by product risk).

• Messaging from state health officials and legislators: whether they adopt a risk-proportionate approach (combustible vs. non-combustible) or a nicotine-is-nicotine stance.

• Industry and advocacy mobilization: polling and constituent pressure could shape amendments as lawmakers weigh voter backlash.

• Spillover politics: other states may watch New York as a template for taxing emerging nicotine products amid shifting cessation norms.

Source: Reason